Home Field Advantage09/10/2017 01:09
How to calculate Home Field Advantage in soccer?
With the help of techniques like Home Field Advantage, many bettors are trying to benefit with working their own odds.
That is why in this article you are going to have the opportunity to learn how to calculate HFA even more accurately than the bookmaker.
All around the world it is known that teams are having better game when are playing at home. In order to find this conclusion, from 1888 was looked every football league season.
Because of the soccer teams being fundamentally unbalanced (with some earning bigger home field advantage than others), it is almost impossible to create a universal home field advantage handicap.
If you want to bet, then you should have in consideration what data you feel is relevant. For example Manchester City’s and Chelsea’s HFA was significantly increased after their purchases by rich owners.
Here is the formula for calculating HFA:
HFA = (HF – HA) / 19
You already know what HFA means, HF is the number of goals scored at home per season and HA is the number of goals conceded at home.
Home Field Advantage
You can use HFA with Asian Handicaps. For example if one team has home handicap less than their HFA then it might be a sensible bet (but this is just one of the many factors that you need to consider in balanced betting strategy).
There is also influence on HFA from home crowds that should be looked into consideration.
For example Liverpool had better HFA than Tottenham in all but one season and they still finished below them in the league.
Of a big importance is as well the stadium familiarity. For example Arsenal failed to use their HFA when they move for the 2006 season from Highbury to the Emirates Stadium.
Before moving to the Emirates Stadium Arsenal HFA was 1.51 and after that was lowered to 1.23. On the other hand, in the last couple of years Arsenal’s HFA has been gradually increasing which means that now they ‘’feel at home’’ at the Emirates Stadium.
Also what is important is the style of soccer that a team adopts. For example Liverpool’s HFA got increased HFA in a period of two years from 0.89 to 1.84 even having the same manager and the similar squad. The main reason for that was that the manager Brendan Rodgers included more attacking philosophy which made more opportunities for Liverpool to score a goal which resulted in almost a goal per game increase in their HFA.
Over the years, many preconceptions have been proposed on what has an influence on HFA in soccer like weather, crowd size, travel and more. But later on it was discovered that the biggest influence was the referee. It was discovered that teams that played at home received small preferential treatment from the referee.
It was found out by the authors of Scorecasting complied data Wertheim and Moskowitz that the bias is not done consciously but that the referees are after all humans and they absorb the emotion coming from the home crowd and in some cases they make a decision that is in favor of the crowd.
In 2006, Ryan Boyko (Harvard Research Assistant) made a research of the influences of HFA and he studied 5,000 Premier League games from 1992 to 2006 and he discovered that for every 10,000 home team fans the HFA was increased by 0.1 goals and that home teams are more likely to receive penalties, especially from inexperienced referees.
That is why when you are going to bet, you should have the referees as well in mind.